Merel Hoedt vs Tamila Gadamauri

Highlights

• • Gadamauri's extensive career and winning record provide model confidence
• • Current odds (1.667) are above our fair-price threshold (1.587), creating value

Pros

• + Clear experience and historical win-rate advantage
• + Market price implies lower probability than our estimate, producing +EV

Cons

• - Recent match listings show losses for both players, adding short-term form uncertainty
• - No direct head-to-head data provided, increasing model variance

Details

We find value on Tamila Gadamauri (away). The market prices her at 1.667 (implied ~60.0%). Given the research: Gadamauri brings a deep career sample (1066 matches, 559-507) and a positive overall winning record across surfaces including clay and hard, while Merel Hoedt has a limited sample (31 matches, 10-21) and a markedly poorer win rate. Both have recent hard-court results listed, but Gadamauri's experience and multi-surface competence give her a clear edge in a high-stakes ITF quarterfinal. We estimate Gadamauri's true win probability at 63.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.587. At the current price of 1.667 the expected value is positive: EV = 0.63 * 1.667 - 1 ≈ 0.050 (5.0% ROI). We therefore recommend betting the away side because the market underestimates her win probability relative to our model. Caveats include limited direct H2H data and some recent losses listed for both players; those increase uncertainty but do not eliminate value at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Gadamauri has 1066 career matches vs Hoedt's 31, indicating much larger sample and match toughness
• • Career form differential: Gadamauri has a positive overall record (559-507) while Hoedt is 10-21, suggesting lower baseline win expectancy for Hoedt
• • Surface versatility: Gadamauri has recorded matches across clay and hard, reducing surface-specific risk vs the less-proven Hoedt