Highlights

• • Market makes Mia Horvit a strong favourite (1.60) despite no clear performance gap in the data
• • Breakeven price for a 50% chance is 2.00; current away price 2.23 exceeds that

Pros

• + Away price (2.23) offers a clear mathematical edge against a 50% estimate
• + No injury or surface information in the research to justify heavy market bias toward home

Cons

• - Available data is limited and largely symmetric; our 50% estimate is conservative but uncertain
• - Tennis matches have high variance — short-format matches can swing quickly

Details

The market prices Mia Horvit as a clear favourite (1.60 => implied 62.5%) while Mirjana Jovanovic is priced at 2.23 (implied 44.8%). The available research shows nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form for both players with no clear injury or surface edge for the home player. With no substantive information to separate the two, we assess the match as essentially even (true win probability ≈ 50/50). At a fair 50% win probability, the away odds of 2.23 produce positive expected value (EV = 0.5*2.23 - 1 = +0.115), while backing the favourite at 1.60 would be negative EV. Therefore we recommend the away side as a value play because the required breakeven price for a 50% probability is 2.00 and the market offers 2.23.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the supplied data
• • No injuries, surface advantage, or H2H edge present in the research to justify the market's large favourite
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (≈44.8%) is substantially below our conservative true-probability estimate (50%)