Highlights

• • Both players have matching records and surface history in the research
• • Fair odds should be near 2.00 given parity; 1.14 offers large negative EV

Pros

• + If the market is correct, heavy favorite gives low variance for a win
• + Home designation can carry a small edge in some matches

Cons

• - Current price (1.14) implies an 87.7% win probability that is not supported by the provided data
• - Both players' recent results are poor and similar — no evidence of a dominant favorite

Details

We find no value on Mia Horvit at the quoted 1.14. The available research shows both players with nearly identical career spans, records (10-21), surface experience (clay and hard) and recent poor form; there is no evidence in the data to justify an ~87.7% implied chance for the home player. A realistic assessment based on parity and available match context puts Mia roughly 50% to win, implying fair decimal odds around 2.00. At the market price of 1.14 the expected return is strongly negative, so we do not recommend taking the heavy favorite.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records and career spans in the provided data (10-21), suggesting parity
• • Both have played the same surfaces (clay, hard) and recent form entries show losses — no clear performance edge
• • Market price (1.14) implies an unrealistically high probability compared with available objective indicators