Mia Horvit vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen

Highlights

• • Identical career W-L records and surface profiles in the provided research
• • Underdog price (2.91) would need to be ≥3.03 to be +EV against our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear, conservative read: we avoid wagering when market-implied probabilities exceed our estimate
• + We preserve bankroll by not chasing likely chalk or marginal underdog value without supporting evidence

Cons

• - Limited dataset in the research reduces confidence — additional info (H2H, recent match stats, injuries) could flip the view
• - If unseen factors favor the underdog (e.g., home advantage, opponent fatigue) we may miss a live value opportunity

Details

We estimate no betting value at the quoted prices. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience (Clay, Hard) in the available data, and recent results show losses for each, giving no clear performance edge. The market strongly favors Rebecca Munk Mortensen at 1.368 (implied ~73%); to take the favorite we would need a true-win probability materially above the market — which the available form and record do not support. Conversely, Mia Horvit's underdog price of 2.91 requires a true win probability above ~34.3% to be +EV; given the parity in head-to-head indicators and recent poor form, we estimate Horvit's true probability below that threshold. With no injury or other information indicating a divergence from market pricing, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records in the provided data (10-21), implying similar baseline quality
• • Recent match snippets show losses for both players; no momentum advantage evident
• • Market heavily favors the away player (1.368); the underdog price (2.91) does not exceed our required threshold for value