Highlights

• • Profiles/datasets for both players are effectively equivalent — market overpricing of the home favorite likely
• • At 4.10, the away price exceeds our break-even threshold (3.333) for a 30% win chance

Pros

• + Large margin between implied market price and our conservative probability estimate
• + No reported injuries or surface edge to materially justify the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head or ranking detail in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Small-sample variability in tennis means single-match outcomes remain high-variance despite positive EV

Details

We find value on Mara Gae (away). The available profiles show near-identical career records and recent form for both players, providing no strong objective basis to justify the heavy 1.20 market pricing for Mia Ristic. With no injury or surface advantage data differentiating them, we treat the true win probabilities as much closer than the market implies. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Mara Gae of 30%, the current decimal price of 4.10 implies large upside (EV = 0.30 * 4.10 - 1 = +0.23). The book's implied away probability (~24.4%) is materially below our 30% estimate even after accounting for typical margin; therefore the away line offers positive expected value. We use the quoted 4.10 for the EV calculation and set the minimum fair decimal odds at 3.333 for our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • No injuries, surface advantage, or H2H data provided to justify the heavy favorite price
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (≈24.4%) appears lower than our conservative true estimate (30%), creating value