Mia Ristic vs Sada Nahimana

Highlights

• • Players have almost identical profiles; market overprices the home edge
• • Away price 2.33 produces positive EV given our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.33)
• + Simple, conservative model based on near-identical records reduces overfitting risk

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head or injury details increases variance
• - ITF-level matches are highly volatile; small edges can evaporate quickly

Details

Both players display nearly identical career records (approximately 10-21 / 10-22) and similar surface experience, so there is no clear performance gap suggested by the available profiles. The market prices Mia Ristic at 1.568 (implied ~63.8%) and Sada Nahimana at 2.33 (implied ~42.9%). Given the near-identical records and recent form for both players, we view the true win probabilities as much closer to even than the market implies. We estimate Nahimana's true chance at 48%, which is materially above the market-implied 42.9% for the away price of 2.33. At that price EV = 0.48 * 2.33 - 1 = +0.118 (11.8% ROI), so the away price offers positive expected value. Key caveats: small sample sizes, volatile ITF-level results, and lack of head-to-head or injury information increase uncertainty, but the current away price looks mispriced enough to justify a value play.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career win-loss records and surfaces played
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for away (42.9%) appears lower than our estimated true probability
• • Small-sample/volatile ITF form increases variance but also creates pricing inefficiencies