Highlights

• • Home odds 2.37 imply 42.2% — our estimate 46.2% (value)
• • Market likely over-weights Ojakaar’s short-term wins given his small career sample

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the offered home price
• + Sobhy’s larger match history reduces outcome variance relative to opponent

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and deeper context (injuries, practice form) in the provided data
• - Ojakaar’s recent wins could indicate genuine improvement — risk of market correcting

Details

We estimate Michael Bassem Sobhy is undervalued at the current home moneyline (2.37). The market implies a 42.2% chance for Sobhy, but a close read of the player profiles suggests a higher true probability: Sobhy has a much larger match sample (45 matches, 22-23) and near-50% career win rate on hard courts, while Ojakaar's profile shows a much smaller sample (12 matches, 5-7) which creates greater volatility in the market price. Ojakaar’s recent wins are notable but come from limited appearances, so the market appears to be over-weighting a short-term uptick. Accounting for sample size, overall career win rates on hard courts, and the bookmaker overround (~7.6% implied vig), we estimate Sobhy’s win probability at 46.2%, producing positive expected value at the available 2.37 price. At this probability the minimum fair decimal odds would be ~2.165; the current 2.37 price offers value.

Key factors

• • Sobhy has a much larger match sample and near-50% win rate on hard courts
• • Ojakaar’s smaller sample (12 matches) makes his current form more volatile and possibly overvalued
• • Bookmaker-implied odds include a visible overround (~7.6%) — current home price (2.37) exceeds our fair threshold