Michael Geerts vs Mikail Alimli

Highlights

• • Home price 1.03 implies ~97.1% — we estimate ~92% true probability
• • Underdog 11.0 implies ~9.1% — we estimate Alimli ~8%, also negative EV

Pros

• + Clear qualitative advantage (experience, match wins) for Geerts
• + Market prices reflect the expected outcome and remove value on either side

Cons

• - Very short favorite price leaves almost no margin for bettors
• - Limited data on Alimli adds uncertainty and makes a value longshot speculative

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 1.03, Away 11.0) to our estimate of true win probabilities. Michael Geerts clearly has the stronger profile: a long recent match history, a substantially larger sample size and a positive win-loss record, while Mikail Alimli has very limited pro experience and a losing record. We estimate Geerts is a heavy favorite but not quite as extreme as the market-implied 97.1% probability; we place his true win probability at 92%. At the quoted home price (1.03) the expected value is negative (EV = 0.92*1.03 - 1 = -0.0524), so there is no value on the favorite. The underdog price (11.0) implies ~9.1% and would require Alimli to be substantially underpriced versus our view; given his limited results we estimate his true chance near 8% which also produces negative EV at 11.0. Because neither side shows positive expected value against the quoted market prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Michael Geerts
• • Mikail Alimli has a small sample size and a losing record at pro level
• • Market heavily favors home (implied ~97.1%) leaving minimal margin for error