Michael Geerts vs Stan Wawrinka

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Wawrinka but his recent record is inconsistent
• • Geerts's win-rate and match activity justify a higher true probability than the odds imply

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current price (5.02)
• + Challenger-level setting narrows gulf between a veteran with inconsistent form and an in-form challenger

Cons

• - High variance due to limited grass-specific form for both players
• - If Wawrinka returns to peak form or market odds shorten, the value will evaporate quickly

Details

The market prices Stan Wawrinka at 1.188 (implied win probability ~84.2%), which leaves Michael Geerts at 5.02 (implied ~19.9%). From the provided profiles, Geerts has a stronger recent win-rate (42-33) and more match volume at this level than Wawrinka (21-24), while both show limited/no grass experience. Given the Challenger context and Wawrinka's sub-.500 recent record and inconsistency, we believe the market is overstating Wawrinka's win probability. We estimate Geerts's true chance at ~28.0% versus the market-implied ~19.9%, creating value on Geerts at the available 5.02 price. Using the current 5.02 decimal price yields an expected value of ~+0.406 per 1-unit stake (EV = 0.28 * 5.02 - 1). We therefore recommend backing the home player only because the expected value is positive at current odds; if odds shorten toward ~3.57 or below, that value disappears.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Wawrinka (~84%) appears overstated given his recent sub-.500 record
• • Geerts has a stronger recent win-rate and greater match volume at this level, making him more competitive than the price implies
• • Both players have limited grass data, increasing variance; that benefits the underdog pricing (Geerts) in a single-match market