Highlights

• • Current odds (2.65) are above our min fair price (2.50)
• • Estimated EV is modest at +0.06 (6% ROI per unit)

Pros

• + Quoted price offers a measurable edge versus our conservative probability
• + Decision accounts for bookmaker margin and higher variance in tennis matches

Cons

• - No external data on surface, recent form, or injuries — elevates uncertainty
• - Edge is small; outcomes in single matches remain volatile

Details

We have no external research on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we start from the quoted market prices (Home 2.65, Away 1.45) and a conservative adjustment for the book's margin. Normalizing the market gives roughly 35.4% for Michael Mmoh and 64.6% for Valentin Vacherot. Given the high variance inherent in individual tennis matches, limited public information, and the bookmaker margin, we conservatively estimate the true probability that the home player wins at 40.0% — slightly higher than the normalized market probability. At decimal odds 2.65 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.40*2.65 - 1 = +0.06), meaning the price offered exceeds our minimum fair price (2.50). We therefore recommend a back of the home underdog only because current odds exceed our min_required_decimal_odds; this recommendation is cautious given the information gap and higher variance in single-match outcomes.

Key factors

• • Limited public data on form, surface, injuries or H2H increases outcome uncertainty
• • Bookmaker margin suggests normalized market win-probabilities (home ~35.4%)
• • We conservatively raise home true probability to 40% to account for match variance and information uncertainty