Highlights

• • Market implies ~70.3% for Kovalik; our estimate ~68%
• • EV on Kovalik at 1.422 is slightly negative (~-0.033), so we pass

Pros

• + Kovalik has documented grass experience and a recent Challenger win
• + Market price reflects surface advantage and recent form

Cons

• - Vrbensky has limited grass data in the supplied profiles and weaker overall form
• - No clear upside/value on the favorite at current odds

Details

We compare the market price (Kovalik 1.422 / Vrbensky 2.89) to our assessment from the supplied profiles and surface. Kovalik has prior grass experience and a slightly stronger recent set of results (including a recent win at the Tulln Challenger) and a career record that indicates more experience across surfaces. Vrbensky's profile shows limited or no grass activity in the supplied data and a worse overall win-loss record (19-28 vs Kovalik's 13-26 but with grass listed for Kovalik). The market implies Kovalik ~70.3% (1/1.422) — we estimate his true win probability around 68% given surface advantage and marginally better recent form. At that estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.471; the current price 1.422 produces a slightly negative EV (EV = 0.68*1.422 - 1 ≈ -0.033). The underdog (Vrbensky) at 2.89 would require a true win probability of ~34.6% to be fairly priced but we assess his chance closer to 32%–34% because of lack of grass experience and poorer form, so Vrbensky also lacks value. Therefore we do not find positive expected value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: grass favors the more experienced grass player (Kovalik listed as playing grass)
• • Recent form: Kovalik has a recent win at the Challenger level; Vrbensky shows weaker recent results in supplied data
• • Head-to-head: not provided in research — we therefore weight form and surface
• • Overall records: Vrbensky 19-28 vs Kovalik 13-26 but Kovalik shows more surface variety including grass