Highlights

• • Home price implies an 85% chance—likely too high given career records
• • Underdog priced at 4.48 offers positive expected value by our estimate

Pros

• + Current odds (4.48) exceed our required break-even odds (≈3.846)
• + Parth's recent small-sample win and volatility at this level justify a higher upset probability than the market implies

Cons

• - Both players have generally poor overall records; uncertainty is high
• - No clear injury or head-to-head data to materially support the upset — this is a probabilistic value play

Details

We see a very skewed market price: Michael Zhu is a heavy favorite at 1.175 (implied ~85.1%) while Parth Aggarwal is priced at 4.48 (implied ~22.3%). Looking only at the provided player records and recent results, Zhu has a larger sample (17-27, 44 matches) but a modest career win rate (≈38.6%), while Parth's sample is smaller and his win rate is lower (4-15, ≈21.1%). Recent match logs show both have struggled, but Parth has a recent win noted whereas Zhu shows multiple recent losses, indicating volatility on this level. Given small-sample noise in ITF events, travel/form swings, and the modest baseline win rates for both, the market's implied probability for Parth (22.3%) looks slightly below a defensible estimate for an upset chance. We conservatively estimate Parth's true probability at 26% and use the quoted away odds of 4.48 to calculate EV (EV = 0.26 * 4.48 - 1 = 0.165). That produces positive expected value versus the market price. We therefore recommend backing the away player at current widely-available odds (4.48) because the price offers value relative to our modeled upset probability.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the home player (implied ~85%), which is likely overstated given modest career win rates
• • Both players have limited and volatile ITF-level records; Parth's recent minor win reduces the gap in short-term form
• • Small samples and typical volatility at M15 level increase the chance of upsets, creating value on the underdog