Michael Agwi vs Yunchaokete Bu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Michael Agwi at 3.15 because our conservative true win probability (40%) exceeds the market-implied 31.7%, yielding ~26% expected ROI.
Highlights
- • Market implies Home win ~31.7%; we estimate ~40%
- • Positive EV at current odds: +0.26 per unit staked
Pros
- + Strong career win-loss record supports higher base probability
- + Current price (3.15) offers a clear edge if our conservative estimate holds
Cons
- - Limited information on Yunchaokete Bu and match surface increases uncertainty
- - Recent form has some mixed results, so downside risk remains
Details
We compare the bookmaker-implied chance for Michael Agwi (1/3.15 = 31.7%) to our assessed true probability. Agwi's career record (38-16, ~70% win rate) and demonstrated ability across surfaces provide a strong baseline, but we conservatively discount for likely stronger opposition (market favoring Yunchaokete Bu) and some mixed recent results. After adjustment we estimate Agwi's true win probability at 40%, which exceeds the market-implied 31.7%, creating value. At decimal odds 3.15 EV = 0.40 * 3.15 - 1 = +0.26 (26% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home player because the price sufficiently overstates the favorite and offers positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Career win rate strong (38-16) giving a solid baseline probability
- • Market heavily favors Away (1.32) implying Home ~31.7% — our estimate is higher
- • Uncertainty about opponent strength and surface leads to conservative probability adjustment