Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Sobhy: ~70.6% (1/1.417), our estimate: 48.9%
• • Required fair odds to break even: ≥ 2.045; current quote is far shorter

Pros

• + Has match experience on hard courts according to available profile
• + Recent activity suggests he is an active competitor (not returning from long absence)

Cons

• - Career win rate close to 50% — not dominant enough to justify short price
• - No usable information on opponent, H2H, or clear edge to support bookmaker's pricing

Details

We estimate Michael Bassem Sobhy's true chance to win this ITF R16 match at about 48.9% based on his 22-23 career record and available recent hard-court activity; the market prices him at 1.417 (implied ~70.6%), which is substantially higher than our estimate. With the current price the implied probability (1/1.417 = 70.6%) far exceeds a realistic expectation derived from his near-50% career win rate and the lack of any clear edge (injury, dominant recent form, or H2H advantage) in the research. Therefore there is no value on the home moneyline at 1.417 — the bookmaker is overestimating his chance to win relative to our model, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career win rate ~22/45 = 48.9%, not near the market-implied ~70.6%
• • Matches and stats available are limited and show mixed recent results on hard courts
• • No opponent-specific data, H2H, or injury information available to justify marked market edge