Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~44.8% (2.23) but our estimate for Jimenez is ~28%
• • Negative EV at current home price: approximately -37.6% ROI

Pros

• + Clear justification to avoid backing the underdog given supplied match history
• + Conservative approach avoids betting on an under-documented matchup

Cons

• - Decision constrained by lack of any provided stats for the opponent (Joris Hoogland)
• - Small sample of matches for Jimenez increases uncertainty and makes precise probability estimation difficult

Details

We compare the market price (Home 2.23 -> implied win probability ~44.8%) to our estimate of Michael Dylan Jimenez's true chance. The only provided player data shows Jimenez has a very small sample (4 career matches) and a 1-3 record on hard courts with recent losses, which suggests his likelihood to win is substantially below the market-implied 44.8%. Given that lack of positive evidence and no data on Joris Hoogland in the supplied research, we assess the true probability for Jimenez at 28%, which implies a required decimal price of ~3.571 to break even. At the current home price (2.23) EV = 0.28*2.23 - 1 = -0.376, so there is no value on the home side; we also lack the information necessary to justify backing the away favorite at 1.60. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Very small sample size for Michael Dylan Jimenez (4 career matches) and recent form 1-3
• • All documented matches on hard courts with recent losses — limited positive indicators
• • No data provided on Joris Hoogland, creating high uncertainty about the opponent strength