Michael Geerts vs Luca Potenza

Highlights

• • Potenza shows a stronger career record in the provided data
• • Quoted away price 2.19 offers ~27% positive ROI against our estimate

Pros

• + Clear gap between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + Quoted odds are widely available and produce a sizeable positive EV

Cons

• - Both players lack recorded grass experience in the research, increasing outcome variance
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or injury data provided to further refine the estimate

Details

We estimate value on Luca Potenza (away). From the provided profiles Potenza has the stronger career win-loss (46-23 ≈ 66.7%) versus Michael Geerts (42-33 ≈ 56.0%) and better recent results in the supplied entries. Both players have little-to-no recorded grass experience in the research, which raises variance, but does not erase Potenza's superior overall form record. The market prices Potenza at 2.19 (implied ≈45.7%) while we estimate his true win probability around 58.0% on these facts; that gap produces positive expected value. Using the quoted price (2.19) yields EV = 0.58*2.19 - 1 ≈ 0.270 (27.0% ROI). We acknowledge increased uncertainty due to grass surface exposure and limited head-to-head/context details, so we grade the opportunity with a medium risk level, but the price offers clear long-term value if our probability estimate is reasonable.

Key factors

• • Potenza's superior career win-loss record (46-23 vs 42-33)
• • Both players have little/no recorded grass experience in the provided data (increases uncertainty)
• • Market price for Potenza (2.19) implies ~45.7%, which appears to understate his likelihood based on form