Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Derepasko ~85.2%
• • Our estimated probability 78% -> fair odds ~1.282, market is shorter

Pros

• + Derepasko shows better win-loss record and recent form
• + Both players have experience on similar surfaces, so surface advantage is unclear

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.174) is too low to offer positive EV
• - Limited data and lack of H2H/injury details increase outcome variance

Details

We compare the market price (Away Timofei Derepasko 1.174 => implied ~85.2%) to our estimated win probability. Based on the available profiles, Derepasko has a materially better record (9-7) than Gloeckler (4-12) and stronger recent form, so we estimate Derepasko's true win probability at 78%. At that probability the fair price is about 1.282 decimal, while the market offers 1.174 — this produces a negative edge for the favorite. Given limited sample sizes and no injury/H2H data to overturn form-based assessment, the market does not offer value on either side.

Key factors

• • Derepasko's superior recent record (9-7) vs Gloeckler (4-12)
• • Market implies ~85% for Derepasko, above our 78% estimate
• • Small sample sizes and no injury/H2H information increase uncertainty