Highlights

• • Research shows similar form and records for both players
• • 3.6 away price requires only ~27.8% win probability to break even; we estimate 45%

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at quoted odds (EV = +0.62 per unit at p=0.45)
• + Underdog pricing looks inflated relative to comparable player profiles

Cons

• - Research is limited and largely symmetric — high uncertainty in the true edge
• - No H2H, venue-specific, or injury details to further support the pick

Details

Market prices show Bayerlova as a heavy favorite at 1.26 (implied ~79.4%). The available research shows nearly identical profiles for both players (both 10-21 records, similar recent match lines and surface exposure), giving no strong performance edge to Bayerlova. Given parity in the available data and the large market gap, we estimate Esther Lopez Alcaraz's true win probability is substantially higher than the market-implied 27.8% for her 3.6 price, creating value on the away moneyline. At an estimated true probability of 45%, the away moneyline (3.6) yields a positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players show virtually identical career records (10-21) in the provided data
• • No clear surface or injury advantage reported in the research to separate the players
• • Market strongly favors the home player, creating potential value on the underdog