Highlights

• • Research shows no clear superiority for Meliss despite market favoring her heavily
• • Home at 2.37 crosses our breakeven threshold (min required odds 2.083)

Pros

• + Quoted home odds (2.37) are materially above our estimated fair odds (≈2.083)
• + Both players' provided stats are similar, reducing justification for the market gap

Cons

• - Limited and identical research data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If unreported factors (injury, matchup specifics, recent practice performance) favor Meliss, value disappears

Details

We view the market as overstating Verena Meliss's advantage. Both players have nearly identical profiles in the provided research (same career span, identical 10-21 records and similar recent form), with no clear surface or injury edge and no H2H data to justify a large gap. Current decimal prices imply ~42.2% for Michaela Bayerlova (1/2.37) and ~65.4% for Verena Meliss (1/1.529) after ignoring vig; the sum implies a ~7.6% bookmaker overround. Given the parity in the provided performance data, we estimate a true chance for Bayerlova closer to 48% (and Meliss ~52%), which makes the home price of 2.37 offer positive expected value. Using p=0.48 and the quoted home price (2.37) gives EV = 0.48*2.37 - 1 = +0.138 (≈13.8% ROI). We recommend taking the home underdog only because current public odds (1.529 for the favorite) look inflated relative to the scant evidence of superiority; if additional information (injury, H2H, or surface edge) emerges that favors Meliss, that would remove the value.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21)
• • Market implies a large favorite (Meliss) despite no clear evidence in the research
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.6%) inflates favorite price; home decimal 2.37 appears mispriced