Highlights

• • Juhas priced as a ~70% favorite by market, which appears overstated given his mixed record
• • Home odds (2.69) exceed our fair threshold (2.50), creating a small positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ +0.076)
• + Conservative probability assumptions reduce chance of overestimating value

Cons

• - Limited direct information on Michel Hopp increases model uncertainty
• - If Juhas is in better form than recorded or if Hopp is overrated at home, the value would evaporate

Details

We find value on the home side (Michel Hopp). The market prices Kristijan Juhas at 1.429 (implied win probability ~70.0%) and Michel Hopp at 2.69 (implied ~37.2%), with a bookmaker overround ~7.2%. The available player data for Juhas shows a roughly break-even career record (40-44) and mixed recent results on clay, so we do not see clear evidence that he is a 70% true favorite. Given the lack of corroborating dominance and the mixed recent form on clay, we conservatively estimate Michel Hopp's true win probability at 40.0%. At odds 2.69 this produces EV = 0.40 * 2.69 - 1 = +0.076 (7.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Because our estimated true probability implies minimum fair decimal odds of 2.500 and the market is offering 2.69, the home side offers positive expected value against the quoted prices. Odds used for the EV calculation: 2.69 (home moneyline).

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Juhas (implied ~70%) but his career record (40-44) and recent mixed clay results do not support a 70% true win probability
• • Juhas’ recorded matches are on clay and show inconsistency; absence of clear dominance increases chance of an upset
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.2%) inflates favorite pricing; the home price of 2.69 exceeds our minimum fair odds (2.50) for Hopp