Michele Mecarelli vs Matteo Mesaglio
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no positive expected value at the current prices — the away price (2.45) is slightly below our required threshold (2.50) and the favorite is underpriced versus our estimate.
Highlights
- • Home favorite 1.483 implies ~67.4% but shows limited supporting form
- • Away 2.45 would need to be ≥2.50 to be +EV given our 40% estimate
Pros
- + Clear, conservative value threshold computed (min odds 2.50)
- + Analysis accounts for form, surface and market-implied probability
Cons
- - Very small datasets for both players increase uncertainty of our probability estimates
- - No head-to-head or injury information available to refine the forecast
Details
We compared the limited form and surface history for both players and the current market prices. Michele Mecarelli (home) has a small edge on paper (career 1-3 vs Matteo Mesaglio 1-5, both on clay) and the market prices him as favorite at 1.483 (implied ~67.4%). Matteo's recent form is poorer and sample sizes are tiny, but the away line of 2.45 only implies a ~40.8% chance. After adjusting for form, home status, and the very small sample sizes, we estimate Matteo's true win probability at ~40.0%, which requires odds ≥2.50 to be +EV. At the current away price of 2.45 the EV = 0.40*2.45 - 1 = -0.02, so there is no value on either side at available prices. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Very small career sample sizes for both players (limited reliability of form data)
- • Both players predominantly on clay; no decisive surface advantage shown
- • Market favours the home player strongly (1.483) leaving little or no margin for value