Michele Mecarelli vs Remy Bertola
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on Remy Bertola at 1.06 based on a high estimated win probability (96%) driven by experience and clay form; the edge is slim and offset slightly by a recent retirement concern.
Highlights
- • Bertola strong clay experience and much larger match sample
- • Mecarelli has minimal professional record and poor recent results
Pros
- + Market price slightly underestimates Bertola's probability based on available data
- + Clear experience and performance gap on clay in Bertola's favor
Cons
- - Edge is small — tiny positive EV, sensitive to small errors in probability estimate
- - Recent Bertola retirement/loss introduces some injury/fitness uncertainty
Details
The market price for Remy Bertola (1.06, implied win prob 94.34%) is tight but still offers a small edge versus our estimated true probability. Bertola has a large match sample (78 matches, 45-33) and consistent clay experience, while Michele Mecarelli has only 4 recorded matches (1-3) and limited clay exposure and form. The gap in experience, career win rate and surface familiarity strongly favors Bertola. We do note a recent match recorded as a retirement for Bertola which raises a small injury risk; we nonetheless assess his baseline win chance above the market-implied level, producing positive EV at the quoted 1.06 price.
Key factors
- • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Bertola (78 matches vs 4)
- • Bertola has better demonstrated results and clay experience; Mecarelli limited sample and 1-3 record
- • Market-implied probability (94.34%) is slightly below our assessed win probability (96%)
- • Recent retirement/loss noted for Bertola introduces a small injury/fitness risk