Highlights

• • Home at 2.20 implies 45.45% but we estimate ~50% win chance
• • Estimated EV ≈ +0.10 per unit at current odds

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.20)
• + Cited recent serving numbers favor the underdog, creating a plausible edge

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and inconsistent form across both players reduce confidence
• - Limited data on surface-specific performance and no H2H information

Details

We see both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and limited distinguishing data in head-to-head or surface edge. The market prices Jing-Jing Lu as the favorite at 1.588 (implied ~62.95%) and Michika Ozeki as the underdog at 2.20 (implied ~45.45%). Examining the recent match stat snippets available, Ozeki has shown very strong 1st-serve winning numbers (listed 83% in a recent hard-court match), while Lu has a lower listed 1st-serve won (69% in a recent event). Given the similarity in win-loss records but a potential serving-edge for Ozeki in the provided recent stats, we estimate Ozeki's true win probability at about 50.0%, which is higher than the market-implied 45.45% for the 2.20 price. At our estimate, the 2.20 price offers positive expected value (EV = 0.5 * 2.20 - 1 = +0.10). We therefore recommend backing the home player (Michika Ozeki) because the market appears to undervalue her relative to the measurable service performance in the provided data and given the overall parity between the players. We note the sample sizes are small and form is inconsistent, so the edge is modest and not free of risk.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21), suggesting parity
• • Provided recent match stats show Ozeki with a stronger 1st-serve win rate (83% vs Lu's 69%) in cited matches
• • Market-implied probability for Ozeki (45.45%) is below our estimated true probability (50%), producing value