Highlights

• • Book implied probability: 91.6% (1.092); our estimate: 93.0%
• • Small but positive EV of ~0.0156 (1.56% ROI) at the quoted price

Pros

• + Large experience and match-win differential in Cretu's favor
• + Current market price is slightly generous relative to our probability estimate

Cons

• - Very small edge — low ROI and sensitive to estimation error
• - No documented grass experience for either player increases volatility and uncertainty

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability (1 / 1.092 = 91.6%) to our assessment of the matchup. Cezar Cretu has a substantially stronger record (43-25) and clear recent wins at the M15 level, while Mihai Alexandru Coman is 0-11 in his short career and has no recorded grass experience. The event is on grass, a surface neither player has documented match history on in the provided data, but the raw disparity in form, match volume and win rate strongly favors Cretu. We estimate Cretu's true win probability at 93.0%, which exceeds the implied 91.6% by a small margin and creates a positive expected value at the current decimal price of 1.092.

Key factors

• • Cretu has a large experience and win-rate advantage (43-25) vs Coman (0-11)
• • Both players lack recorded grass match history, but Cretu's greater match maturity reduces upset risk
• • Book market implies 91.6% for Cretu; our assessed probability (93.0%) produces a small edge