Highlights

• • Coman 0-11 career record and recent form extremely weak
• • Market implies 84.7% but we estimate ~92% for Palosi

Pros

• + Clear statistical and form edge for Palosi
• + Current odds (1.18) provide a measurable positive EV vs our probability

Cons

• - Low absolute payout — variance is small but returns per stake are limited
• - Upsets are always possible in ITF events despite form gaps

Details

We estimate Stefan Palosi is a clear favorite based on a much stronger match record (25-23) versus Mihai Alexandru Coman's 0-11 record and recent string of losses. The market decimal price for Palosi is 1.18 (implied probability 84.7%). Given form, experience and surface familiarity, we judge Palosi's true win probability significantly higher at 92.0%. At that probability the fair price is ~1.087; the available 1.18 therefore offers positive expected value. The main downside is the very low payout on heavy favorites, but the margin between our probability and the market implies an EV of ~8.6% on a 1-unit stake (EV = 0.92*1.18 - 1 = 0.0856).

Key factors

• • Coman's career record 0-11 and recent losses indicate very poor form
• • Palosi's substantially greater match experience and positive win record
• • Market price (1.18) understates Palosi's win likelihood vs our estimated 92%