Mihail Ivanov vs Dusan Obradovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value exists at the current prices — Obradovic is the clear favorite but the market price of 1.04 is slightly too rich versus our estimated win probability of 95%. We therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away (Obradovic) is heavily favored by the market (1.04).
- • We estimate Obradovic ~95% to win, which does not beat the market-implied ~96.15%.
Pros
- + Obradovic has substantially more match experience and clay exposure.
- + Market price accurately reflects expected outcome; low upside but low variance for favorite.
Cons
- - Price for the favorite leaves no positive expected value at available odds.
- - Ivanov's extremely limited sample size makes modelling his upset chance uncertain but still unlikely to justify value.
Details
We find no value at the current market prices. The away player, Dusan Obradovic, has extensive match experience (50 matches, 26-24) and clear clay exposure, while Mihail Ivanov has a single recorded match (0-1) on clay. The market prices Obradovic at 1.04 (implied ~96.15%). Based on the experience gap and surface history we estimate Obradovic's true win probability at ~95.0%, slightly below the market-implied probability, which produces a negative EV at 1.04. To justify backing Obradovic at these prices his true win probability would need to exceed ~96.15%, which our assessment does not support. Conversely, Ivanov would need implied odds >11.0 (true win probability >9.09%) to be a value bet; given his one recorded match and 0-1 clay record we estimate his win probability well below that threshold.
Key factors
- • Experience gap: Obradovic 50 matches vs Ivanov 1 match
- • Surface history: Obradovic with clay experience; Ivanov 0-1 on clay
- • Market-implied probability (1.04) exceeds our estimated true probability