Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Brunold: ~86.96%
• • Our estimated true probability: 80% → no positive EV at 1.15

Pros

• + Brunold’s pro match volume and positive overall record support favoritism
• + Surface versatility (clay and hard) reduces matchup uncertainty

Cons

• - Insufficient information on Dan Martin means upside for an upset is uncertain
• - Market price is very short, offering no margin for estimation error

Details

We estimate Mika Brunold is the clear favorite based on his recent professional activity and a solid 39-28 record, but the available information does not justify an implied win probability as high as 86.96% (the market price of 1.15). With limited data on Dan Martin and no clear indicators of injury or severe mismatch, we conservatively estimate Brunold's true win probability at 80%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 1.25. The current home price of 1.15 implies too little value (negative EV), so we do not recommend a wager on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Brunold has a positive pro record (39-28) and recent activity on clay/hard
• • Market price (1.15) implies ~87% win chance which we consider overstated given available data
• • No usable information about Dan Martin (form, surface preference, injuries) to justify a heavy favorite price