Highlights

• • Away (Forger) favorite at 1.568, implied probability ~63.8%
• • Our estimated true probability for Forger is ~60%, so current price is too short to be profitable

Pros

• + Forger has a stronger overall record and better recent results in the provided data
• + Both players appear to have played the same surfaces recently, reducing unknown surface edge

Cons

• - Available information is limited and lacks direct head-to-head or detailed match-level stats
• - Small-sample records and recent losses for both players introduce volatility and uncertainty

Details

We compared the market moneyline to a reasoned true probability based solely on the provided player profiles and recent form. Abel Forger is the market favorite at 1.568 (implied 63.8%), which aligns with his stronger career record (36-42) and more consistent recent results versus Mika Petkovic's weaker record (13-25) and poor recent form. We estimate Forger's true win probability at about 60% on the likely clay/hard context reflected in the recent matches — below the market-implied 63.8% — so the current favorite price offers negative expected value. To be profitable with this estimated probability we would need at least decimal odds of ~1.667 for Forger; since the available price (1.568) is shorter, we do not recommend taking a side.

Key factors

• • Career records and recent form favor Abel Forger over Mika Petkovic
• • Both players have recent activity on clay; Forger shows more consistent outcomes
• • Market-implied probability (63.8% for Forger) exceeds our estimated true probability (60%)