Highlights

• • Favorite Mika priced at 1.308 implies >76% win chance
• • Available performance data supports a much lower true probability (~65%)

Pros

• + Mika has the clearer record with multiple wins at ITF level
• + Stijn's 0-7 record suggests vulnerability despite being the opponent

Cons

• - Mika's overall career win rate in the provided data is low (9-23)
• - Both players have limited/high-variance samples in the research, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We compared the market price (Mika Petkovic 1.308, implied 76.4%) to our estimate of Mika's true win probability. Mika has a larger sample (32 matches, 9-23) and at least some wins, while Stijn Paardekooper has a very limited record (7 matches, 0-7). That said, Mika's documented career win rate (~28%) and recent match lines in the research do not justify a true-win probability near the market-implied 76%. We estimate Mika's true chance to be materially below the implied market probability, so the favorite at 1.308 offers negative expected value. To produce a positive EV at current prices Mika would need a win probability above 76.4%, which we do not support based on available performance data. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Mika has more matches and the only documented wins (9-23 career record)
• • Stijn has a very small sample and no recorded wins (0-7), so outcome uncertainty is high
• • Market heavily favors Mika (implied 76.4%), which is not supported by the available win-rate data