Mikel Martinez vs Michiel De Krom

Highlights

• • Large experience and win-record advantage for De Krom (32-30 vs 0-7)
• • Current market price (1.11) underestimates De Krom's probability in our view, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds
• + Low likelihood of upset given Martinez's 0-7 record and limited match history

Cons

• - Very low payout per unit staked despite positive EV
• - Small sample size on Martinez's career could hide unknown variables (form/injury not reported)

Details

We see clear value backing Michiel De Krom at the current price. The market-implied probability from 1.11 odds is ~90.1%, but our assessment places his true win probability materially higher (~95%). The research shows a large experience and results gap: De Krom has a 32-30 career record across 62 matches including clay, while Mikel Martinez is 0-7 in his short career. Both have recent clay matches, but Martinez's 0-7 record and lack of wins give us high confidence that De Krom is substantially more likely to win. There are no injury notes in the provided data to reduce De Krom's chances. At decimal 1.11 this creates positive expected value (EV = 0.95 * 1.11 - 1 = +0.0545 per unit), so we recommend the away player.

Key factors

• • De Krom has significantly greater match experience (62 matches) and a positive record (32-30)
• • Martinez has no recorded wins (0-7) in the provided career data, indicating a very low upset probability
• • Both players have recent clay matches, so surface does not materially favor Martinez