Highlights

• • Our estimated win probability for Kukushkin: 66.0%
• • Minimum fair odds for value: 1.515; market offers 1.595

Pros

• + Surface familiarity advantage for Kukushkin (grass)
• + Higher match volume and experience reduces surprise risk

Cons

• - Both players show uneven recent form and limited direct matchup data
• - Edge is modest — outcome variance in a single match remains significant

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability for Mikhail Kukushkin at decimal odds 1.595 (implied ~62.8%) to our view of his true chance. Kukushkin has greater match volume and explicit grass experience in his profile while Enzo Couacaud's profile lists clay and hard only, suggesting a relative surface edge for Kukushkin on grass. Couacaud also has fewer career matches and a weaker overall win-rate, increasing variance on this surface switch. Given those factors, we estimate Kukushkin's true win probability at ~66.0%, which exceeds the implied 62.8% probability, producing positive expected value. The minimum fair decimal price consistent with our estimate is 1.515; the current market at 1.595 offers a usable margin for value betting. We acknowledge noise from mixed recent form for both players and limited head-to-head context, so the edge is modest but real at the present price.

Key factors

• • Kukushkin has recorded play on grass while Couacaud's profile lists clay and hard only
• • Kukushkin has more career matches and experience, reducing variance on grass
• • Current market odds (1.595) imply ~62.8% — below our 66% estimate, creating value