Mila Masic vs Gina Feistel

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (94.3%) strongly contradicts the supplied performance data
• • Breakeven fair decimal odds for home given our estimate is 2.00 vs market 9.00

Pros

• + Very large overlay on the home side if our 50% estimate is correct
• + Research shows no clear advantage for the away player to justify such low odds

Cons

• - Extreme market price could reflect late-breaking info (injury/withdrawal) not present in supplied sources
• - High variance: long odds mean a low hit-rate even if the bet is +EV

Details

Current market odds are extreme: the away moneyline of 1.06 implies ~94.3% win probability while the home price of 9.0 implies ~11.1%. The available research shows both players with near-identical career spans and identical win-loss records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay, hard) and recent truncated form lines — nothing in the provided data justifies a near-lock for the away player. Absent any injury, withdrawal, or clear form/head-to-head advantage in the supplied sources, we treat the matchup as essentially even. We therefore estimate Mila Masic (home) has a ~50% true win probability. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.00, so the current 9.0 quote represents strong value relative to our estimate. We flag this as a high-risk value opportunity because such a large market discrepancy often reflects unreported player status changes or a books error; if new information (withdrawal/injury) appears the edge would disappear.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical 10-21 records and similar surface histories in the research
• • Market implied probabilities (Away ~94.3%, Home ~11.1%) are inconsistent with available data
• • No provided evidence (injury/withdrawal/H2H advantage) to justify the heavy away favoritism