Milana Maslenkova vs Ekaterina Yashina

Highlights

• • Market vastly overstates the away player's chance based on available data
• • Home odds (4.29) exceed our minimum required odds (≈3.226) for positive EV

Pros

• + Clear numerical value vs. market-implied probability
• + Both players' profiles are similar, supporting a reweight toward closer odds

Cons

• - Research is sparse and identical for both players — high uncertainty remains
• - No head-to-head, seed, or tournament-specific surface data in the provided sources to confirm the edge

Details

The market heavily favors the away player at 1.208 (implied ~82.8%), but the available profiles show both players with effectively identical career stats (10-21) and similar recent form (recent losses). There is no evidence in the provided research of a clear, substantial advantage for the away player (no injury or superior surface split data). Given the symmetry in the available data, we judge the true chance for the home player to be substantially higher than the market-implied 23.3% (1/4.29). We estimate Milana Maslenkova's true probability at 31%, which makes the home price of 4.29 offer positive expected value (EV = 0.31*4.29 - 1 ≈ +0.33). We therefore recommend backing the home player only because the current odds are sufficiently above our minimum required decimal odds (≈3.226).

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent losses in the provided data
• • Bookmaker pricing (away 1.208) implies an outsized probability (~82.8%) not supported by the supplied profiles
• • No injuries, surface advantages, or head-to-head edges are shown in the research to justify the heavy market bias