Highlights

• • Away implied probability: ~90.6%; our estimate: 92.0%
• • Underdog would need ≥16% win chance to be profitable at 6.25 — assessed as unlikely

Pros

• + Clear objective advantage in experience and career results for Lazarenko
• + Current price (1.104) slightly underestimates Lazarenko relative to our model

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈1.6% ROI) so model error or late information could eliminate value
• - Low payout on favourites magnifies impact of any misestimate

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability (1/1.104 = 90.6%) to our estimated true probability for Kateryna Lazarenko. The research shows a very large experience and career-quality gap (1066 matches, 559 wins) versus Milana Maslenkova's limited record (31 matches, 10 wins). Both players show recent losses, but the deep experience and much stronger career win rate for Lazarenko materially favours her. Given those factors we estimate Lazarenko's true win probability at 92.0%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied 90.6%. At the current decimal price of 1.104 this produces a small positive expectation (EV = 0.92 * 1.104 - 1 ≈ 0.016). The underdog price (Milana 6.25) would require a win probability ≥ 16.0% to be profitable; we assess Milana's realistic win chance well below that threshold, so the only plausible value is on the favorite.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap (Kateryna ~1066 matches vs Milana ~31 matches)
• • Career win-rate and longevity strongly favour the away player
• • Market-implied probability (90.6%) is slightly below our 92% estimate, creating a small edge