Milana Maslenkova vs Gloria Pop

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 53.7% vs our estimate 65% for away
• • Positive expected value of ~0.21 at current odds

Pros

• + Clear value gap between market and our probability estimate
• + Maslenkova shows recent poor form and limited experience

Cons

• - No direct data on Gloria Pop provided — our estimate relies on gap inferred from Maslenkova's weakness
• - Lower-tier matches and limited info increase outcome variance

Details

Current market odds (1.862) imply a win probability of 53.7% for either side. We examined Milana Maslenkova's available profile: a 10-21 career record, very limited pro span, and recent losses suggesting poor form on hard and clay. With only one player's data available and that player showing negative form and limited experience, we assign a materially lower win probability to Maslenkova and correspondingly a higher win probability to her opponent. We estimate Gloria Pop's true win probability at 65.0%, meaning the current away price (1.862) offers positive expected value: EV = 0.65 * 1.862 - 1 = +0.210. Because the market is pricing the match as essentially even, the gap between our probability model and the market implies value on the away side at widely available prices.

Key factors

• • Maslenkova's poor win-loss record (10-21) and recent losses indicate weak form
• • Market prices are symmetric (both 1.862) despite available evidence favoring the away player
• • Limited data on the opponent increases model uncertainty but skews in favor of the non-Maslenkova player given her form