Highlights

• • Ciocan's career win rate (10/31) implies far lower true favorite probability than 1.201 suggests
• • At 4.13 the away side offers a large positive EV (≈1.796) against the market

Pros

• + Clear numerical mismatch between market pricing and Ciocan's documented win rate
• + High return on estimated edge if Maia is even moderately better than implied market odds

Cons

• - No profile or form data provided for Maia Sung — our estimate assumes she is meaningfully better than Ciocan's average opponents
• - Small-sample and recency issues in Ciocan's record; tennis matches can be volatile and upset-prone

Details

We base our estimate on Milena Ciocan's available career sample: 10 wins in 31 matches (a 32.3% win rate). The market prices Ciocan at 1.201 (implied ~83.3%) and Maia Sung at 4.13 (implied ~24.2%). Using Ciocan's empirical win rate as a neutral baseline, the implied probability that Maia wins is 1 - 0.323 = 0.677 (67.7%). At the quoted away decimal 4.13 this represents substantial value versus the market's 24.2% pricing. Calculations: estimated_true_probability (Maia) = 0.677; min_required_decimal_odds for positive EV = 1 / 0.677 = 1.477; EV at current odds = 0.677 * 4.13 - 1 = 1.796 (≈179.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend the away side because the market appears to significantly underprice Maia given Ciocan's modest career win rate and recent results. We note this conclusion depends heavily on the limited data available for Maia Sung (no direct profile provided) and assumes no material injury or tournament-specific advantage for Ciocan.

Key factors

• • Milena Ciocan career record 10-21 (31 matches) → ~32.3% baseline win rate
• • Market heavily favors Ciocan (home 1.201 implied ~83.3%) — likely overstated given her record
• • Lack of public data on Maia Sung introduces uncertainty but current away price 4.13 implies ~24.2%, creating a large mispricing vs our baseline