Milena Ciocan vs Maimouna Keita

Highlights

• • Home implied win % (~95%) seems overstated given Ciocan's 10-21 record and recent losses
• • At 9.0 the away has a reasonable upset price; we estimate a 15% chance which yields positive EV

Pros

• + Large margin between market-implied probabilities and our estimated probabilities
• + High potential payout relative to our upset probability estimate

Cons

• - Very limited information on Maimouna Keita increases model uncertainty
• - If Ciocan's poor record belies matchup advantages (surface, form cycles), the bet can fail

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our estimate of the true chances. The market prices Milena Ciocan at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%) and Maimouna Keita at 9.0 (implied ~11.1%). Ciocan's public profile shows a short career (10-21 record) and clear recent struggles in lower-level events, which argues her true win probability is well below the market's near-certainty. Given the lack of favorable recent form for Ciocan and no evidence of a debilitating injury, we conservatively estimate Keita's upset chance at 15%. At decimal 9.0 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.15*9.0 - 1 = +0.35). Therefore the away line represents value relative to our probability model; the heavy favoritism on Ciocan looks exaggerated and leaves room for a profitable contrarian wager on Keita at the offered price.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Milena Ciocan (1.05) implying ~95% win probability
• • Ciocan's record is 10-21 with poor recent results at lower-level events
• • Sparse public data on Keita increases uncertainty and raises upset potential