Mili Poljicak vs Jay Clarke

Highlights

• • Clarke has multi-surface experience including grass; Poljicak's profile shows clay/hard only
• • Current odds 1.87 understate Clarke's chance in our view, creating positive EV

Pros

• + Surface advantage and broader experience for Clarke
• + Clear positive expected value at the quoted price (EV ≈ 0.0846)

Cons

• - Data provided on recent form is limited and not comprehensive
• - Poljicak could be underrated by profile gaps or have favorable form not captured here

Details

We see value on Jay Clarke (away). Clarke's career record (54-26) and documented play across clay, hard and grass give him a clear surface advantage on grass over Mili Poljicak, whose profile lists only clay and hard and a more modest 31-29 record. Clarke also has higher-level match experience and a stronger recent sample, while Poljicak's recent results in the provided snapshot show multiple losses. The market prices Clarke at 1.87 (implied ~53.5% raw), which we consider conservative given his grass experience and superior win-rate. We estimate Clarke's true win probability at 58%, which yields a positive EV at the available 1.87 price. Therefore we recommend backing the away player only because the expected value is positive versus the current market price; if prices move below our min-required decimal odds (1.724) the value disappears.

Key factors

• • Clarke has documented grass experience while Poljicak's profile lacks grass matches
• • Clarke's career win-rate (54-26) is substantially stronger than Poljicak's (31-29)
• • Market price (1.87) implies a lower probability than our estimate, creating value