Highlights

• • Market implies only ~30.8% for Ionel while our model estimates ~58%
• • Required decimal odds for value are ~1.724; current 3.25 far exceeds that

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market-implied and our estimated probability
• + Ionel's stronger career win-rate and clay competence support a higher true win chance

Cons

• - Limited match-level context and no head-to-head data in the provided research
• - Recent short-term form shows some volatility for both players, introducing uncertainty

Details

We identify clear value on Nicholas David Ionel at the listed prices. The market implies Ionel has about a 30.8% chance (3.25 -> 0.308), but our assessment, based on comparative career win-rates and surface history, places his true win probability substantially higher. Ionel's 47-19 record indicates a materially stronger winning profile than Mili Poljicak's 31-29, and both players have primarily clay experience in the provided data — a surface where Ionel has been consistently successful. Recent results show Poljicak with multiple losses in late-summer clay events while Ionel has remained productive in lower-level clay events; that combination supports an estimated true probability of 58% for Ionel. At 58% true probability, the fair decimal price is ~1.724, so current 3.25 offers a large positive expected value. We recognize limitations (no H2H provided, limited contextual match-level stats, some recent results for both players), so we remain conservative in our probability estimate while still identifying strong mispricing by the market.

Key factors

• • Ionel's superior overall win-loss record (47-19) versus Poljicak (31-29)
• • Both players listed on clay; Ionel has strong clay results in the provided data
• • Market odds heavily favour the home player despite comparative form, creating a large discrepancy