Mili Poljicak vs Cezar Cretu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Cezar Cretu at 1.769 due to his stronger record and recent form; limited grass data raises variance but does not eliminate a modest positive edge.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Cretu: ~56.5%; our estimate: 58.0%
- • Small positive EV (~2.6%) at current odds, but surface uncertainty increases risk
Pros
- + Clearer form edge and superior career record for Cretu in the provided data
- + Current price (1.769) is above our min required price (1.724) for a positive EV
Cons
- - No specific grass-court performance data for either player in the research
- - Margin of value is small — outcome variance on grass could negate the edge
Details
The market prices Cezar Cretu as the favorite at 1.769 (implied ~56.5%). From the provided profiles Cretu has a stronger overall record (43-25 vs 31-29) and more recent wins, while Poljicak shows weaker recent form. Neither player has confirmed grass pedigree in the provided data, which raises variance, but the observable edge in form and career W-L favors Cretu. We estimate Cretu's true win probability at 58.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 56.5% and produces a small positive edge at the current price. Given the limited grass data we keep the probability conservative, but still find value against the market quote.
Key factors
- • Cezar Cretu superior overall win-loss record (43-25 vs 31-29)
- • Cretu's recent match results show winning momentum; Poljicak's recent form looks weaker
- • Both players lack documented grass experience in the provided data, increasing outcome variance