Mili Poljicak vs Gabi Adrian Boitan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend betting the away player, Gabi Adrian Boitan, at 1.88 because our conservative true win probability (60%) exceeds the market-implied 53.2%, producing ~12.8% expected value.
Highlights
- • Current odds 1.88 imply ~53.2%; our model estimates 60% for Boitan
- • Conservative adjustment for recent unfinished match still leaves positive EV
Pros
- + Clear career win-rate advantage and larger match sample favoring Boitan
- + Value remains after conservative downgrade for recent fitness/form concern
Cons
- - Boitan's recent 'U' / unfinished match on 08-Sep is a red flag for fitness or form
- - Limited head-to-head/contextual matchup details in the provided research increase uncertainty
Details
We find value on the away side (Gabi Adrian Boitan). Boitan's career record in the provided data is considerably stronger (50-28, ~64% win rate) versus Mili Poljicak (31-29, ~51.7% win rate), and both players have experience on clay, the surface for this match. The market price of 1.88 implies a win probability of ~53.2% whereas our adjusted true probability for Boitan is 60%. We reduce Boitan's raw career edge (64%) to 60% to account for recent mixed form and an unfinished/retired entry on 08-Sep in Targu Mures, but even with that conservative adjustment the current odds offer positive expected value. Poljicak's career numbers and recent results in the research do not justify treating him as the favorite at this price. Hence at decimal 1.88 we calculate EV = 0.6 * 1.88 - 1 = 0.128 (12.8% ROI per unit).
Key factors
- • Boitan's stronger overall career win percentage (50-28) vs Poljicak (31-29)
- • Both players are comfortable on clay; Boitan's larger sample size suggests greater reliability
- • Recent caution: Boitan has an unfinished/retired entry in the same event window — reduces true probability slightly