Highlights

• • Karol's career win rate materially higher than Mejia's
• • Current market implies Mejia >61%, which looks overstated against available form/records

Pros

• + Price of 2.34 comfortably above our fair-price threshold (2.00)
• + Both players recent activity on Istanbul hard courts reduces surface mismatch risk

Cons

• - No direct head-to-head data and limited granular recent-match stats increase variance
• - Market favorite status for Mejia suggests bookmakers see an edge we may not fully observe

Details

We see a value opportunity backing Milos Karol at 2.34. Karol's overall win-loss (50-29, ~63%) and match activity on hard courts in Istanbul suggest he's at least evenly matched with Nicolas Mejia, who has a lower overall win rate (35-32, ~52%). The market prices Mejia as the clear favorite (1.629, implied ~61.4%), which appears generous relative to the raw career records and similar surface form for both players. Conservatively estimating Karol's true chance at 50.0% produces a required fair price of 2.00; the current 2.34 offers a meaningful edge. We also note both players competed in the same Istanbul event recently (hard courts), reducing surface uncertainty. The lack of H2H and limited injury information raises variance, but the odds skew toward Mejia enough to create positive expected value on Karol at available prices.

Key factors

• • Milos Karol superior career win rate (50-29) versus Mejia (35-32)
• • Both players have recent matches on Istanbul hard courts, reducing surface uncertainty
• • Market favors Mejia strongly (1.629 implied ~61.4%); current price for Karol (2.34) exceeds our fair threshold