Highlights

• • Market overrates the inexperienced home player
• • Firman's career-level edge and surface versatility create upside at current odds

Pros

• + Strong value margin vs market price (min required odds 1.667 vs available 2.95)
• + Firman's much larger match sample and positive career win rate

Cons

• - Recent form snippets show both players lost recent matches on hard courts
• - Lack of head-to-head detail and potential contextual factors (fitness, conditions) increase uncertainty

Details

We view the market as significantly overstating Mina Hodzic's chance despite the 1.368 price. Hodzic's provided career record (10-21 over 31 matches) signals limited experience and a sub-0.35 career win rate, while Anastasiia Firman has a long, winning career (559-507 over 1066 matches) and experience across all surfaces. Both players have recent losses on hard courts, but Firman's durability, deeper match history, and higher baseline win rate make her substantially more likely than the market-implied ~33.9% (1/2.95). At our conservative estimated true probability of 60% for Firman, the available decimal price 2.95 represents clear value (EV = 0.60 * 2.95 - 1 = 0.77). We therefore recommend backing the away player at current prices.

Key factors

• • Firman's extensive career (559-507) and experience across all surfaces
• • Hodzic's limited sample size and low career win rate (10-21 over 31 matches)
• • Market-implied probability for Firman (~33.9%) appears below her realistic win chance