Mina Hodzic vs Fiona Ganz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value present: both players look evenly matched in the provided research and current odds are below our break-even price of 2.00, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probabilities (~53.5% each) exceed our estimated true win probability (50%)
- • Fair price to show value would be >= 2.00 decimal; current prices are lower
Pros
- + Conservative, data-driven approach avoids wagering against the bookmaker margin
- + Clear rationale based on identical records and lack of differentiating information
Cons
- - Limited research details (no H2H, no recent clay-specific results or injury notes) increase uncertainty
- - If unobserved factors (e.g., home crowd, recent practice, illness) exist, our 50% estimate could be wrong
Details
We estimate the match is essentially a toss-up based on the provided research: both players show identical season records (10-21), similar surface exposure (clay and hard) and no clear recent edge or injury information. The market prices are almost even (Home 1.87, Away 1.855) and imply probabilities of ~53.48% and ~53.88% respectively, reflecting the bookmaker margin. Our conservative true-win probability estimate for Mina Hodzic is 50.0% (no clear advantage). At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.000; current prices are below that, giving negative expected value (EV = 0.50 * 1.87 - 1 = -0.065). Because both sides are priced below our minimum required odds for a fair bet, no value exists at the listed prices and we therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical season records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided data
- • Market prices are nearly even and include a bookmaker margin that removes edge
- • No injury, surface-specific advantage, or head-to-head data in the research to justify deviating from a 50/50 estimate