Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Mina: ~84.7% (1/1.181)
• • Our estimated true probability: 35% → required odds ≥ 2.857 for positive EV

Pros

• + Mina is the market favorite, so outcomes may be driven by factors not in the provided data
• + If unknown opponent info (not provided) were negative, the market line could be justified

Cons

• - Mina's available profile shows a poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent results
• - Current odds are far too short relative to our estimated true probability — large negative EV

Details

We compare the market price (Mina Hodzic 1.181 => implied win prob ~84.7%) to what the available player data supports. Mina's profile shows a 10-21 career record (roughly 32% career win rate) and weak recent form, which does not justify an 85% market probability. Given the lack of any supportive information on the opponent and no injury/withdrawal notes, we take a conservative stance: we estimate Mina's true win probability materially below the market price. Using our estimated true probability (0.35) against the available decimal price for Mina (1.181) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.35 * 1.181 - 1 = -0.587). To find value on Mina at this estimated skill level you would need a price of at least 2.857. Because the current market is far shorter than required to produce positive EV, we do not recommend backing either side based on the provided research.

Key factors

• • Mina Hodzic's documented career record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate)
• • Recent form shown in profile indicates multiple losses and limited wins
• • Market price (1.181) implies an ~84.7% win probability that is not supported by Mina's recorded performance
• • No opponent (Maia Sung) data provided to justify the heavy favorite market line
• • ITF-level matches can have large variance; without opponent context downside risk is elevated