Mina Hodzic vs Polina Bakhmutkina
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market price for Hodzic appears markedly overstated; Bakhmutkina at 3.98 offers value against our 40% win probability (EV ≈ 0.592).
Highlights
- • Current implied probability for Hodzic (~82%) is likely overstated
- • Away price 3.98 exceeds our fair threshold (2.50), creating positive EV
Pros
- + Strong positive EV at current quoted odds
- + Both players appear closely matched on paper, supporting an underdog case
Cons
- - Limited detailed data (no H2H or deeper match-by-match context) increases model uncertainty
- - Underdog outcomes are higher variance—short-term volatility is likely
Details
We see a large market overweight on Mina Hodzic (1.214 implied ~82.4%), but the available player data shows both competitors with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface exposure (clay and hard) and recent poor form. There are no reported injuries or clear H2H/experience advantages in the provided research that justify an 80%+ market probability for Hodzic. We estimate Polina Bakhmutkina's true win probability at 40% (0.40). At the available away price of 3.98 this yields a positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 3.98 - 1 = 0.592 (59.2% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal price to break even at our probability is 2.5, so any market price above ~2.50 represents value. Given the extreme favoritism for Hodzic in the market and the comparable profiles, the away line represents clear value.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors Hodzic (1.214) despite near-identical records for both players
- • Both players have similar surface histories (clay and hard) and matching 10-21 records
- • No injury or form advantage in the research to justify large market gap