Miomir Kecmanovic vs Ergi Kirkin
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at the current prices — Kecmanovic is rightly a heavy favorite but 1.04 is too short versus our ~92% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies >96% for Kecmanovic (1.04); we estimate ~92%
- • Both sides show negative EV at current odds (home -0.043 ROI, away also negative)
Pros
- + Clear class advantage for Kecmanovic versus an M25-level opponent
- + Surface compatibility favors Kecmanovic's experience across surfaces
Cons
- - Kecmanovic's recent record shows inconsistency which prevents an ultra-high true probability
- - Price (1.04) requires an implausibly high certainty (>96%) to be profitable
Details
Current market price (Miomir Kecmanovic 1.04) implies a >96% win probability. Based on the research, Kecmanovic is a higher-level ATP player while Ergi Kirkin competes mainly at M25/Challenger level; that gives Kecmanovic a clear quality edge. However, Kecmanovic's recent overall record (31-31) shows inconsistency and he has some recent losses at higher events, so we estimate his true win probability around 92%. At that estimated probability the required probability to make a 1.04 price +EV is >96.15%, so the current market price is too short to offer value. The away price (9.0) would require an ~11% true upset probability to break even; we estimate Kirkin's upset chance closer to 8%, so that side is also negative EV. Therefore we recommend no wager at current prices.
Key factors
- • Level gap: Kecmanovic is an established ATP-level player vs Kirkin largely in M25/Challenger events
- • Form and record: Kecmanovic's 31-31 record shows inconsistency despite clear class advantage
- • Market-implied probability (1.04) is higher than our estimated true probability, leaving no value