Miomir Kecmanovic vs Yanki Erel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: the bookmaker price of 1.01 for Kecmanovic implies an extreme 99% win probability that isn't justified by the players' records and recent form; we estimate Kecmanovic closer to 78% and therefore decline to bet.
Highlights
- • Bookmakers imply ~99% for Kecmanovic (no value)
- • Realistic fair price for Kecmanovic is ~1.282 or higher
Pros
- + Kecmanovic has top-level experience and has played on hard courts recently
- + Erel’s success is mostly at lower-tier events, which typically favors the higher-level player
Cons
- - Current odds give no positive expected value (EV negative at 1.01)
- - Uncertainty around matchup dynamics and recent form means our probability estimate has meaningful variance
Details
We estimate Kecmanovic is the stronger favorite here because he competes at higher-level events (including Grand Slams) and has experience on hard courts, but the market price (1.01) implies an ~99.0% chance which is not supported by the available form and records. Research shows Kecmanovic 31-31 across top-level events and losses in recent high-level matches, while Erel (49-22) has a strong win-rate at lower-level events (M25s) and plays primarily on hard/clay. Given the step-up/down in event quality, we assign Kecmanovic a realistic win probability of about 78% (0.78). At the current decimal price of 1.01 (odds used for EV), that yields EV = 0.78*1.01 - 1 = -0.212 (negative), so there is no value to back either side at available prices. To be profitable long-term we would need at least 1.282 decimal on Kecmanovic (implied probability <=78%), or conversely 14.0 on Erel would require an estimated Erel win probability >=1/14 = 7.14% to offer value; we estimate Erel's true chance is well above that but uncertainty around event level and matchup makes it speculative — still, the most marketable fact is there is no positive EV at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Kecmanovic plays at higher-level events (including Grand Slam) whereas Erel's wins come largely at lower-tier M25 events
- • Both players have experience on hard courts, but head-to-head and matchup specifics are not provided
- • Current market price (1.01) implies near-certain outcome which is unsupported by form and records
- • Erel’s strong win rate at lower level increases upset potential, so true probability for Kecmanovic is much lower than implied by bookmakers