Highlights

• • Underdog implied probability (8.5) = ~11.8% vs our conservative estimate 3%
• • Breakeven odds for the underdog would be ~33.333

Pros

• + Large payout if the underdog pulls an upset
• + Clear market prices available for both sides

Cons

• - Insufficient independent data to raise our probability estimates
• - Negative EV on the underdog at current odds; favorite is thinly priced with limited exploitable value

Details

We have only the posted moneylines (Mirabelle Tahiri 8.5, Leonie Schuknecht 1.07) and no additional form, surface, injury, or H2H data. Conservatively, we estimate Mirabelle Tahiri's true win probability at about 3% given the very short price on the favorite and the tournament level implication (Monastir events tend to feature clear favorites). The market-implied probability for Tahiri at 8.5 is ~11.8%, which is substantially higher than our conservative 3% estimate; therefore betting the underdog is negative EV. Conversely, the favorite's implied probability at 1.07 is ~93.5%; while the favorite may be undervalued slightly, we do not have enough independent evidence to confidently assign a true win probability materially above the market without exposing ourselves to model risk. Given the lack of corroborating information and our conservative assumptions, there is no clear positive expected value on either side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Only market odds available; no independent form/injury/H2H data
• • Huge favorite (1.07) suggests strong mismatch or low-tier event
• • Conservative low estimate for underdog (3%) leads to negative EV at 8.5