Highlights

• • Market price (1.25) implies ~80% win chance
• • Our conservative true probability estimate is ~55%, making the current price negative EV

Pros

• + Market clearly favors Bulgaru, indicating perceived superiority
• + Available stats confirm she is an active tour player

Cons

• - Poor season record and recent losses reduce confidence in such a high implied probability
• - Lack of opponent information prevents identifying a specific upset angle

Details

We compared the market price (Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 1.25, implied ~80%) to our assessment of true win probability. Bulgaru's documented season record (10-21) and recent match slate show poor form and multiple recent losses on hard and clay; the available performance data does not support an 80% chance against an unknown but presumably comparable tour-level opponent. With limited opponent information and no injury or head-to-head data provided, we take a conservative view and estimate Bulgaru's true win probability substantially below the market-implied number. At our estimated probability, the current favorite price offers negative expected value, so we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Season record and recent form poor (10-21 overall; multiple recent losses)
• • Market implies ~80% for the home player, which is higher than our conservative estimate
• • No opponent-specific data or H2H available to justify market favoritism